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Unité partielle de la gauche et avancées concrètes

mercredi 18 mai 2016 par Michel Cahen

 
Nous reproduisons ici un article de notre camarade Michel Cahen écrit fin mars et publié dans le numéro d’avril de la revue Démocratie&Socialisme n°234 d’avril 2016.

Le 4 octobre 2015 ont eu lieu les élections législatives au Portugal, les plus importantes en régime parlementaire. Elles faisaient suite à cinq années de règne de la coalition PSD (centre-droit) / CDS-PP (droite dure), appliquée à respecter, et même au-delà, tous les diktats de l’Union européenne.

La pauvreté (notamment des retraités et des chômeurs), la précarité croissante des jeunes (dont l’émigration avait bondi, y compris parmi les diplômés), de très grands scandales bancaires (comme la faillite frauduleuse de l’équivalent local des Rothschild, les Espírito Santo) et le blanchiment de l’argent de la richissime élite angolaise ont marqué un règne scandaleux.

Première différence avec la France : le parti socialiste portugais – dont le mandat antérieur avait été calamiteux – n’était donc pas au pouvoir et s’opposait à la droite. Cependant, précisément en raison de son mandat antérieur, un abîme de méfiance le séparait des autres forces de gauche, comme le Parti communiste portugais (PCP), le Parti des Verts (PEV qui, au Portugal, est un appendice du PCP) et le Bloc de gauche (BE, coalition d’anciens trotskistes et maoïstes rejoints par de nombreux « sans parti »). Une deuxième différence est qu’il n’y a pas vraiment de « frondeurs » ou de tendance de gauche au sein du PSP. Mais, dans un contexte délétère (l’ancien Premier ministre socialiste Sócrates en prison pour corruption), c’est António Costa, le maire de Lisbonne, largement apprécié et unitaire, qui a dirigé la campagne électorale.

Un scrutin singulier…

Celle-ci a donné un résultat contradictoire : 36,86 % des voix pour la droite au pouvoir – le plus fort résultat d’un parti ou d’une coalition – mais elle n’avait plus la majorité absolue ; un résultat médiocre pour le Parti socialiste (32,31 %, moins qu’il y a cinq ans), sanctionné pour son opposition inconséquente à la droite ; et une forte poussée de la gauche antilibérale (8,25 % pour la coalition PCP-PEV, et 10,19 % pour le BE). Ce dernier avait fait une excellente campagne, avec une nouvelle direction (un trio féminin de choc qui avait fait un tabac en affrontant directement la famille Espírito Santo), critiquant à la fois la droite et le PS, mais s’affirmant résolu à mettre fin au règne de la droite, et doublant son score d’il y a cinq ans.

On avait donc une situation inédite : la droite avec une majorité relative, le PS incapable de former seul le gouvernement et une gauche antilibérale prête à négocier avec le PS, avec la gauche globalement majoritaire au parlement. Le président sortant, Aníbal Cavaco Silva (droite), a alors tout fait, à l’extrême limite de ses prérogatives, pour reconduire le Premier ministre de droite. Mais, dès la présentation de son programme à l’Assemblée, celui-ci a été censuré et António Costa est devenu le nouveau Premier ministre.

... et une majorité qui ne l’est pas moins !

Contrairement à ce qui a pu être dit, il n’y a pas d’union de la gauche au Portugal : seul le PS est au gouvernement. Mais il ne tient que grâce au PCP, au PEV et au BE qui ont négocié des accords partiels, chacun bilatéral avec le PS, en échange de leur vote de l’investiture et des budgets.

Les accords partiels laissent de côté des questions énormes, comme la renégociation de la dette avec l’Union européenne. Mais ils sont centrés sur des mesures sociales très importantes pour la vie quotidienne des Portugais, comme la fin du gel des retraites, la suppression des « reçus verts » (qui permettaient au patronat d’embaucher à la journée des travailleurs sans payer aucune cotisation sociale), l’encadrement des stages jusqu’alors imposés systématiquement aux jeunes, le retour à la négociation collective, l’interdiction de la saisie de la résidence principale en cas de dette, le renforcement du Système national de santé, le retour au droit entier à l’IVG (que la droite avait limité), la titularisation des jeunes chercheurs scientifiques (éternellement maintenus en « post-doctorat »), le développement du réseau ferroviaire, etc. Le fait qu’il ait fallu des accords séparés entre chacun des membres de la majorité et le PS dénote les divisions qui existent, même au sein de la gauche non-socialiste. Mais, sur le fond, il y a peu de nuances entre les différents accords.

Pour l’instant, cela fonctionne ! L’adoption pour couples homosexuels est passée (malgré le veto du président), le budget a été amélioré grâce aux propositions du PCP et du BE notamment et il a finalement été adopté. Des commissions conjointes ont été créées pour discuter toutes les questions importantes. Le PSP est obligé d’appliquer ce programme (malgré la forte pression exercée sur lui par l’Union européenne pour le contraindre à réviser le projet de budget), sinon, il tombe ! Précisément parce que l’accord est partiel (dans son contenu et ses conséquences), il y a tout lieu de penser qu’il pourra durer le temps de la législature. C’est la fin du « cycle de l’appauvrissement » que dénonçait le BE. Au Portugal, timidement, l’espoir renaît.

Lisbonne, 20 mars 2016

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