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Au détriment de l’investissement et de l’emploi

mercredi 18 mai 2016 par Clémentine Frondeuse

 
Nous publions ici un article paru dans le numéro d’avril de Démocratie&Socialisme n°234 d’avril 2016.

Le gouvernement s’est félicité fin mars d’un déficit public 2015 plus faible que celui qui avait été anticipé : 3,5 % du PIB contre 3,8 % prévus dans la loi de finances, soit un recul de 4 milliards d’euros. Depuis 2012 (où il atteignait 4,9 % du PIB), le déficit public n’a ainsi pas cessé de se réduire d’année en année.

Cependant, cette baisse n’est pas forcément le signe d’une reprise de la croissance économique et de l’emploi, comme l’atteste le taux de chômage (10,3 % de la population active au 4e trimestre 2015).

Une équation dangereuse

Le gouvernement s’est fixé un objectif dangereux, celui de réduire le déficit public tout en diminuant les prélèvements obligatoires, sur les ménages mais surtout les entreprises. Partant du postulat que la fiscalité est un frein à l’investissement et à l’emploi, il a via le CICE et le pacte de responsabilité, accordé des avantages fiscaux et sociaux très coûteux pour les finances publiques, de l’ordre de 40 milliards d’euros.

La fiscalité sur les ménages a également été revue à la baisse. En 2014, la réduction d’impôt a bénéficié à 4 millions de ménages pour 1,16 milliards d’euros. Les effets de cette mesure ont été pérennisés et amplifiés en 2015 pour 9 millions de ménages moyens et modestes, via la réforme du bas du barème (suppression de la première tranche notamment).

Bilan de ces mesures, le taux de prélèvements obligatoires est en recul pour la première fois depuis 2009, passant de 44,8 % à 44,5 % du PIB.

Compte tenu de ces baisses, dans un contexte de croissance économique très peu dynamique, la seule façon de réduire significativement le déficit public est de réduire les dépensespubliques. Le gouvernement a donc poursuivi une politique de coupes significatives faisant passer leur poids dans le PIB de 57,3 % à 56,8%, soit un recul de 0,5 point en 2015.

Un investissement public en recul et un investissement privé qui stagne

Prise entre la baisse de leurs ressources, notamment de la dotation globale de fonctionnement versée par l’État, et une hausse de leurs dépenses obligatoires (RSA par exemple pour les départements), les collectivités locales ont dû réduire significativement leurs projets d’investissements (moins 4,6 milliards d’euros en 2015), avec des conséquences très négatives sur l’activité et l’emploi. En 2015, l’investissement public (État, collectivités, hôpitaux) a ainsi reculé de 3 %, après une baisse de 6,9 % en 2014.

Quant aux mesures d’allégements fiscaux pour les entreprises, elles se sont traduites par un redressement des taux de marge (31,4 % fin 2015), mais l’investissement ne redémarre pas, stagnant après un recul de 1,2 % en 2014. Dans un contexte de faibles débouchés et d’incertitudes fortes (baisse de l’investissement des collectivités, ralentissement de la croissance mondiale avec les difficultés des pays émergents), les entreprises n’ont aucun intérêt à investir, d’autant plus que la pression des actionnaires reste forte pour que la rentabilité financière soit assurée, ce qui décourage les projets à long terme, créateurs d’emplois.

Du côté des ménages, une faible inflation et une baisse des impôts ont permis une légère reprise du pouvoir d’achat, qui cependant, dans un contexte de forte incertitude sur l’avenir (crainte du chômage), a surtout été orientée vers l’épargne. Le taux d’épargne atteint ainsi 15,9 % des revenus. La dynamique de la consommation est donc trop faible pour fournir des débouchés suffisants aux entreprises et les inciter à investir.

Une politique budgétaire et macroéconomique inadaptée

Les baisses de prélèvements sur les entreprises pour relancer l’emploi et l’investissement sont donc un échec, si bien que le gouvernement commence à interroger les patrons sur l’utilisation effective du CICE. Elles ont fait peser le poids de l’ajustement budgétaire sur les dépenses publiques et l’investissement des collectivités territoriales, avec des effets très négatifs sur la croissance et l’emploi. Quant à la baisse de la fiscalité sur les ménages, outre qu’elle bénéficie à l’épargne et non à la relance de la consommation, elle ne concerne pas la moitié des Français non imposables du fait de revenus trop faibles. Or, ce sont eux qui consomment la plus grande part de leur revenu.

Pour relancer la croissance, une vraie politique de soutien à la consommation est nécessaire. Il faut soutenir les ménages les plus modestes, notamment par une revalorisation des prestations sociales, redonner les moyens aux collectivités territoriales, qui représentent 75 % de l’investissement public, de porter des projets ambitieux (transition énergétique).

Du côté des entreprises, les allégements de cotisations sociales et de fiscalité ont montré leur inefficacité pour soutenir l’investissement et l’emploi, et ce n’est certainement pas une nouvelle déréglementation du marché du travail qui résoudra le problème. La France a besoin, comme l’Europe, d’une véritable stratégie industrielle qui viendra compléter une stratégie de relance macroéconomique.

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